The energy subsidy policy of developing countries is maintaining a steady increase in the demand of these countries, and correspondingly, the energy demand of developed countries has begun to stagnate or decline due to the increase in prices.
Everyone agrees that with the global economic growth, the demand for crude oil will grow steadily, but in different regions, market demand has already shown differentiation. Unlike many people's imagination may be different, the demand for crude oil in developed countries is being hit by a greater impact on prices, and the demand in developing countries is still growing continuously.
Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly report predicted that the demand for crude oil from OECD member countries will decline for the second year. The average daily demand for OECD member countries this year will be 49.23 million barrels, which is 0.2% less than last year. %, down 0.9% from 2005. The IEA believes that the increase in energy prices is the most important reason for the decrease in demand, and this trend is even more pronounced in the United States.
Platts quoted John Fermi of the American Petroleum Institute (API) as saying that the conclusions of the American Petroleum Institute’s October report are consistent with the recent IEA's prediction that US oil demand will continue to decline. According to figures from the American Petroleum Institute, the United States’ crude oil imports in October were the lowest in eight months. This year, the amount of U.S. crude oil imports fell by 1.3% year-on-year.
It is not that the increase in domestic crude oil production has led to a decline in imports. According to the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Association (EIA) data, as of November 9th, the average weekly crude oil production in the United States was 5.124 million barrels per day, which was lower than the same period last year. 5.296 million barrels.
The start-up rate of the refinery also proves that demand is being affected to a certain extent. In October, the operating rate of refineries in the United States was still lower than 90%. According to EIA data, as of November 9th, the average number of processings for a refinery was four weeks. It was 14.95 million barrels a day, down from 150.58 million barrels a year earlier. According to the API data, the gasoline delivery volume increased "very slowly" compared to the same period of the previous year. In October, the year-on-year increase was only 0.9%, while the distillate oil delivery volume decreased by more than 3% year-on-year.
Energy demand in developed countries is greatly affected by high oil prices. However, the energy needs of developing countries are more “immunized†to high oil prices.
In many developing countries, especially in Asia and the Middle East, the government has adopted a subsidy policy for energy consumption. These countries hope that by controlling energy prices so that low-income consumers can afford, control inflationary pressures and maintain economic growth, such artificial price control distorts the market.
"Development subsidies for energy consumption in developing countries have kept the impact of high oil prices on the economy out of the country. Since the energy consumption per unit of GDP in developing countries is generally large, this should have been a place with higher demand elasticity." Philip White, principal analyst at White & Co, said that this behavior underestimated the impact of rising energy prices on the overall economy.
However, this behavior is difficult to maintain in the long run, especially for those countries where energy is heavily dependent on imports. Many smaller economies have already felt the pressure on the government to continue rising energy prices. Excessive subsidies have made the original healthy financial situation worse.
Myanmar has tripled its fuel prices in August this year, and some countries such as Thailand and the Philippines have also completely canceled subsidies, while Malaysia is also considering resuming plans to release energy prices.
With the gradual marketization of energy prices in developing countries, we will more clearly see the impact of high oil prices on demand.
Everyone agrees that with the global economic growth, the demand for crude oil will grow steadily, but in different regions, market demand has already shown differentiation. Unlike many people's imagination may be different, the demand for crude oil in developed countries is being hit by a greater impact on prices, and the demand in developing countries is still growing continuously.
Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly report predicted that the demand for crude oil from OECD member countries will decline for the second year. The average daily demand for OECD member countries this year will be 49.23 million barrels, which is 0.2% less than last year. %, down 0.9% from 2005. The IEA believes that the increase in energy prices is the most important reason for the decrease in demand, and this trend is even more pronounced in the United States.
Platts quoted John Fermi of the American Petroleum Institute (API) as saying that the conclusions of the American Petroleum Institute’s October report are consistent with the recent IEA's prediction that US oil demand will continue to decline. According to figures from the American Petroleum Institute, the United States’ crude oil imports in October were the lowest in eight months. This year, the amount of U.S. crude oil imports fell by 1.3% year-on-year.
It is not that the increase in domestic crude oil production has led to a decline in imports. According to the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Association (EIA) data, as of November 9th, the average weekly crude oil production in the United States was 5.124 million barrels per day, which was lower than the same period last year. 5.296 million barrels.
The start-up rate of the refinery also proves that demand is being affected to a certain extent. In October, the operating rate of refineries in the United States was still lower than 90%. According to EIA data, as of November 9th, the average number of processings for a refinery was four weeks. It was 14.95 million barrels a day, down from 150.58 million barrels a year earlier. According to the API data, the gasoline delivery volume increased "very slowly" compared to the same period of the previous year. In October, the year-on-year increase was only 0.9%, while the distillate oil delivery volume decreased by more than 3% year-on-year.
Energy demand in developed countries is greatly affected by high oil prices. However, the energy needs of developing countries are more “immunized†to high oil prices.
In many developing countries, especially in Asia and the Middle East, the government has adopted a subsidy policy for energy consumption. These countries hope that by controlling energy prices so that low-income consumers can afford, control inflationary pressures and maintain economic growth, such artificial price control distorts the market.
"Development subsidies for energy consumption in developing countries have kept the impact of high oil prices on the economy out of the country. Since the energy consumption per unit of GDP in developing countries is generally large, this should have been a place with higher demand elasticity." Philip White, principal analyst at White & Co, said that this behavior underestimated the impact of rising energy prices on the overall economy.
However, this behavior is difficult to maintain in the long run, especially for those countries where energy is heavily dependent on imports. Many smaller economies have already felt the pressure on the government to continue rising energy prices. Excessive subsidies have made the original healthy financial situation worse.
Myanmar has tripled its fuel prices in August this year, and some countries such as Thailand and the Philippines have also completely canceled subsidies, while Malaysia is also considering resuming plans to release energy prices.
With the gradual marketization of energy prices in developing countries, we will more clearly see the impact of high oil prices on demand.
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