Be wary of school bus "foam"

Without any suspense, the domestic school bus market in 2012 will usher in an outbreak, which has many similarities with the market performance of new energy buses around 2008.

The safe operation of school buses is of great concern. In particular, school bus accidents have occurred frequently since the beginning of the year, and social repercussions have been very great. High-level and related departments of the country have also paid considerable attention. In half a month, the "School Car Safety Regulations (Draft)" (Draft for Comment) was promulgated and public opinions solicited; local government departments have taken concrete measures one after another, or purchased new cars, or detailed management, in order to protect school bus safety; Companies with special school bus products have leveraged on promotion, and there have been no product launches. For a time, special school bus products have sprung up like bamboo shoots, and trials such as rollovers and collisions are in full swing. With the dedication of production companies and competent authorities, there will undoubtedly be an acceleration of the process of standardized school bus operations, and more and more school children will be provided with high-quality, high-security travel conditions for going to and from school.

However, the private school bus market is thriving, but I fear it will form a "bubble." This concern arises from the premise of so many school bus accidents. How long can the special school bus operation fever formed under the pressure of public opinion sustain?

The reason why this question is asked is because the special school bus has the same difficulty in the standard operation and the management of the super limit, and it has a similar background with the promotion of the new energy bus.

Let's talk about the same difficulty as the rule of thumb. As we all know, overloaded and over-restricted transportation is caused by sluggish management and low entry thresholds after the release of domestic road freight, and it has subsequently become popular in the market, causing repeated prohibitions. The reason is that the practitioners are very popular and good at fighting "guerrilla warfare", which makes the management cost too high and it is difficult for many areas to sustainably counterbalance. In contrast, the standardized operation of private school buses also faces similar problems. For example, the school bus operators in some places have insufficient qualifications and poor road conditions. They are disregarding laws and regulations in order to make profits. Monitoring is difficult, and it is flexible. Management is also a test of patience.

Again, it is similar to the promotion of new energy buses. In terms of funding, special school buses and new energy buses require government subsidies to accelerate the pace of market entry. In terms of operations, both need government guidance to be able to accelerate the improvement of operating mechanisms; in terms of sustainable development Both of them do not have the ability to "self-reliance" in the present, and they still need relevant departments to provide continuous assistance. At the same time, after the new energy buses got hot, they drove a group of companies that depended on concepts to make a living, which was similar to the current special school bus market.

Only the private school bus market is more complicated.

First of all, when school bus safety is so valued today, school bus accidents around the country are still frequent, reflecting management inability and chaos at the operational level. From the information that can be grasped so far, the proportion of "human" factors is relatively high, and this is precisely the most difficult to enhance and improve.

Secondly, the school bus market, which is considered to have a potential of 100 billion yuan, has now become a must-have for various manufacturers. Regardless of whether or not there have been product and technology accumulations in the past, school bus products have been launched and are mostly delivered to local schools. It is not difficult to see that next year's school bus market is likely to usher in a "spiritious chaos."

Once again, it is difficult to predict the sources of funds that are not yet clear and how they will be implemented next year. Moreover, how to ensure the continued and effective capital investment will also be a major test for the competent authorities at all levels. This will inevitably affect the smooth implementation of the school bus project.

Finally, the outbreak of school bus safety problems has, to some extent, been more than just a single vehicle operation problem, but has risen to the height of social issues, and involves many stakeholders. Although the school bus market is promising, it is still not easy to say whether it will really be able to embark on a normative and safe road in the future.

The "school bus fever" that has been led to stimuli is still in a stage where the foundation is not strong and the prospects are difficult to judge. At this time, if it is rushed in without analysis, it will boost the formation of the "bubble" and affect the overall development.