For the upcoming Twelfth Five-Year Plan, many domestic heavy truck companies have made great preparations for development. From the published target figures, all companies are ambitious and appetizing. However, the ambitious goal is good, but there are also many uncertain factors in the market, and the immediate beginning of the 12th Five-Year Plan, for the Chinese heavy truck companies, the 12th Five-Year's ideals and reality can eventually converge? What is the specific plan of each manufacturer? What kind of opinion does the industry hold about the heavy truck trend during the 12th Five-Year Plan period?
The crowded car companies are doubling their sales targets for the 12th Five-Year Plan.
Up to now, heavy truck companies such as FAW, Dongfeng, CNHTC, Shaanxi Auto, Beiben, Jianghuai, and Hualing have already held 2011 annual business conferences and announced the production and sales targets during the 12th Five-Year Plan period at the annual meeting. Only from the quantitative point of view, the appetite for heavy trucks during the 12th Five-Year Period is indeed not small. According to the 12th Blueprint drawn by the heavy truck companies, most manufacturers are optimistic about the market in 2011 and in the future. However, whether the ultimate goal can be achieved still requires the market to speak.
Many uncertain factors or influence the 12th Five-Year Market
Although the ideal is good, reality is unpredictable. In the face of the future heavy truck market, some experts expressed different concerns.
First of all, from the macroeconomic point of view, the monetary policy has been steadily turning, and the second four trillion yuan in fixed asset investment will no longer appear. The national fixed asset investment is closely related to the heavy truck industry. Once the investment in fixed assets is reduced, the investment in infrastructure will certainly weaken, and the heavy-duty truck industry will also be greatly affected.
Moreover, judging from the operating laws of the heavy-duty truck market over the years, the sales growth curve for heavy-duty trucks is in line with the country's GDP growth rate. It is only slightly volatile. If the growth rate of GDP is relatively high that year, the sales growth of the heavy-duty truck market will also be faster. high. Therefore, once there are special years and special policy incidents, the impact on the heavy truck market will be more dramatic.
Third, the Ministry of Environmental Protection has clearly stated that the IV emission standards for commercial vehicles will be postponed by 1-2 years. Once the implementation of State IV, the lack of technology, rising costs, will form a certain degree of restrictive effect on the company. In addition, the National IV oil cannot be completely popularized, and its price will also rise to a certain extent. This will definitely have a certain inhibitory effect on the purchase demand of consumers.
In addition, real estate control policies will also have an impact on heavy trucks. Industry experts believe that the introduction of real estate control policies in 2010 will have a certain impact on engineering trucks. As one-third of China's GDP comes from real estate investment, in the process of the formation of a huge bubble in China's real estate, heavy-duty trucks and logistics vehicles have developed rapidly, but in the next two years, with the deepening of real estate regulation, construction vehicles Demand will decline.
Extended reading: The views of the industry confrontation The future of the market unpredictable
During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China’s heavy-duty truck market will experience further growth, but it will not maintain the growth rate of the past. It is expected that the growth rate will be around 15% in 2011, and the entire market will peak at around 1.5 million, but it will not More than this number. The reason is that China’s continuous and continuous investment in recent years has placed China at the center of the world economy. In response to the financial crisis, the Chinese government invested 4.5 trillion yuan in 2008 and invested 10 trillion yuan again in 2009. In addition, in 2009, China’s major banks added 10 trillion yuan in new loans, and in 2010 they added 70,000 new loans. Billion yuan and a large amount of investment have driven the construction of China's highways, high-speed railways and airports in succession. None of these require the support of heavy trucks. However, during the 12th five-year period, such speed may be difficult to sustain. Calculated on the basis of 9.5% GDP growth in 2011, the heavy truck market may grow by 10%-15%, while a large number of rural and township urbanization will allow the industry to maintain a certain growth rate.
According to the ups and downs of the truck market, which has historically been 3-4 years old, 2007-2010 should be the peak year of the heavy truck market, and from 2011-2014, it should be a year of market decline, including The product's retirement and replacement. In particular, the domestic heavy-duty truck market underwent the impact of over-limit sales, raw material prices, and the international financial crisis in 2005-2006. After nearly three years of sluggish growth, the domestic heavy-duty truck market began to improve in the second half of 2007. From 2010 to 2014, it should be a year of slippage in the regularity of the heavy trucks themselves. The high growth of the Chinese auto market in 2011 will not continue, and the heavy truck market may have zero growth or negative growth, which is determined by the macro economy and its own market operation rules.
Table: List of "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" of Some Heavy Truck Enterprises
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