In the next 10-15 years, domestic steel demand will remain at a level of 600-700 million tons.

The industry has suffered a total loss. Where does the money come from? Wang Xiaoqi said that one is the profit from mining investment, one is financial investment, and the other is non-steel industry. Although the industry's main business losses, but the specific companies to make money and losses are more extreme. Earn the first profit and earn up to 4 billion. The loss of the most one, the loss of 4.2 billion.

Wang Xiaoqi, vice president of the China Iron and Steel Association, said that since July, iron and steel enterprises have experienced economic difficulties. The profit per ton of steel in the first seven months was only 1.68 yuan. Under the background of large-scale stimulus policies, the steel industry will face a more difficult situation in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. Steel companies must prepare for long-term winterization.

“During the financial crisis in 2008, the steel industry had a profit of 50 yuan per ton of steel. In the first half of this year, the profit per ton of steel was 6.8 yuan. By July, this figure had become 1.68 yuan, and the entire industry was more difficult than in 2008.” Wang Xiaoqi said. He introduced that in August, a sample survey by the China Iron and Steel Association revealed that the industry’s losses in the second week reached 80%-81%, and the deficit in the third week expanded to 83%.

Wang Xiaoqi pointed out that the steel industry has already passed the phase of quantitative growth. For a long period of time in the future, domestic steel demand will remain at a level of 600-700 million tons in 10-15 years. Currently, steel stocks are too large to affect the profits of the late-stage steel industry, and under the background of large-scale stimulus policies, the steel industry will face more difficult situations in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year.

Wang Xiaoqi said that according to the survey conducted by 22 cities and first-line sampling surveys, the real sense of social stocks in the steel industry is 60 million tons, or even 70 million tons or more. Coupled with the stockpiles of steel companies, the entire steel stocks are over 100 million tons, and there is a huge pressure to destock inventory in the later period, and there is still much room for inventory reduction.

Prior to this, the inventory data of the steel industry in the first half of the year announced by the National Development and Reform Commission showed that the inventory of steel in 76 key steel enterprises was 12.45 million tons, an increase of 660,000 tons or 5.59% from the 11.91 million tons in the first half of July, which was the second highest in history. The highest inventory reached 12.46 million tons in the middle of the month.

“The direct cause of the large-scale loss of the steel industry is the shrinking demand of the major steel industry.” Wang Xiaoqi said that the largest user of steel is construction, accounting for about 55%. Half of this is related to real estate, and the other is for highway bridges, water conservancy facilities, and airport construction. The second largest demand maker is manufacturing, but industry orders are decreasing. Judging from the deep-seated reasons, it is caused by the excess capacity and concentration of the steel industry.

Wang Xiaoqi believes that the increasingly difficult situation of iron and steel enterprises will push raw material prices to face deeper adjustments. “The steel price index and the iron ore price index were set as 100% in April 1994. After 18 years, the steel price index returned to 102, while the ore price index is now 450, and only 40.5% has fallen.”

Wang Xiaoqi calculated that the current steel prices fell by 1,000 yuan to 1,100 yuan, coke prices fell by more than 300 yuan, iron ore prices fell by a little less, only fell by around 200 yuan, in accordance with a reasonable ratio, the price of steel fell, mining and coal There is room for further price cuts, and the space is relatively large.