Roland Berger: China's auto market growth rate dropped to 15% in 2011

How long will the carnival in China's auto market continue? Roland Berger Consulting's answer is that the era of exceptionally strong growth in the Chinese automotive market is over.

A few days ago, Roland Berger published a title entitled "China's Auto Market: How long will this carnival last? The report said that in 2011, the growth rate of the Chinese auto market will drop to 15%, and in 2015 it will further decline to 8%.

The report pointed out that after 10 years of development, the sales volume of private passenger cars in China will exceed 11 million in 2010. After the financial crisis in 2008, consumption of private cars in China increased by 50% under the government’s policy stimulus. In this process, multinational car companies benefited greatly from China. Take the European auto parts supplier as an example. In 2010, about 20% of European parts suppliers’ revenue came from China.

However, this process is not sustainable. "The growth of China's economy has been supported by a large amount of stimulus, which has increased the imbalance. In the next few years, GDP growth will slow down." The report said that inflation, real estate bubbles, and deceleration of export growth all affect GDP growth.

Roland Berger predicts that the growth rate of China's GDP in 2011 will be 8.1%, and it will decline to 7.5% in 2015. In the automotive market, Roland Berger predicts that the growth rate will drop to 15% in 2011 and to 10% and 8% in 2012 and 2015, respectively.

Roland Berger's predictions are close to those of most auto companies. Ren Yong, deputy general manager of Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicles, predicts that in 2011 China's auto market will grow at a maximum of 15%. Ma Deyi, general manager of Chery Automobile Sales, predicted that the growth rate of the Chinese auto market in 2011 will be higher than 15%. However, they all agreed that the increase of more than 30% in the Chinese automobile market in the past few years is not sustainable.

“The growth of the domestic automobile market in these two years broke out too quickly, from the country’s stimulus to stimulate the economy, to the accumulation of potential consumer power that has accumulated. However, this explosive growth can be met.” Ren Yong With the explosive growth of the auto market for two consecutive years, some supporting policies for the use of city infrastructure and autos have reached a state of tension.

At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission announced in the last week of December that the purchase tax preference for passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less would be cancelled. This move is considered to be intended by the government to limit the excessive development of cars. In Beijing and Shanghai, even in the first-tier cities and even in the provincial capitals, traffic jams have intensified, and the contradiction between the traffic planning and the increase in the number of cars has emerged.

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that in 2010 China's auto sales will reach 18 million, an increase of 32% year-on-year.