At present, the domestic market demand for titanium dioxide "a dismal", rutile titanium dioxide quoted at 9500 ~ 10500 yuan / ton, anatase titanium dioxide quoted at 8300 ~ 9300 yuan / ton, has fallen below the lowest price in recent years, fell to Below the cost line. The enthusiasm of start-up of production enterprises is not high. Some companies have stopped production and it is difficult to start production. People in the industry lack confidence in the future price movements, and it is difficult to see a rebound hope during the year. The industry views are polarized, and some people think that it is now at the bottom. There are also views that there will be some downturns during the year, and even more extreme low prices may occur. At the same time, minor adjustments are not ruled out. However, the overwhelming majority of viewpoints hold that if the industry really goes out of the low price, it needs to eliminate some of the production capacity, otherwise this downturn will continue to exist.
Although the market is cold, there is still a certain amount of rigid demand for good support. In the short term, the market may maintain the overall stable state of the enterprise. However, many bad factors accumulate “short†strikes, and the pattern of supply and demand may change again. “Guerrilla†may not be possible. To become mainstream, brand and product advantages will highlight market competitiveness later.
According to analysts, in the first half of 2015, the domestic titanium dioxide (rutile titanium dioxide) market experienced a trend of falling first and then rising. From January to February, affected by the Spring Festival of the New Year, the titanium dioxide trading market was thin and the atmosphere was deserted. , There are leading enterprises in Sichuan Long Yao low containment, rutile titanium dioxide market is difficult to rise. From March to May, the market conditions began to pick up. Major manufacturers raised their prices one after another. The market price increase ranged from 900 to 1,200 yuan per ton, and the bullish atmosphere in the titanium dioxide market gradually increased. However, the actual transaction was still dominated by a single proposal. From June to August, due to demand overdrafts in the past few months, market orders have shrunk, and downstream purchasing demand has dropped sharply, and market prices “have returned to liberation before.†By September-October, Southwest Long Enterprises continued to increase preferential rebate sales. Although the linkage effect of other manufacturers was poor, most enterprises chose to stabilize to maintain the customer base. However, the long-awaited “Jin 9 Silver Ten†has apparently Become a mirror. Analysts believe that the end of the year and the city are still following the behavior of the main, may be a small range of shocks and adjustments, but overall there will be no big upside, downside shocks in the foreseeable future.
According to Bi Sheng, director of the Titanium Dioxide Center of the National Chemical Industry Productivity Promotion Center, since the first quarter of 2012, the titanium dioxide industry has gradually shown a sluggish market, the market demand has shrunk, the price has dropped, and although the short-term "rebound" and “Looking up†is not enough to change the general trend down the road. Compared with the hot scene in 2010~2011, it is really a bad day. Fortunately, thanks to the gradual recovery of the global economy and the country's policy of encouraging exports, Fangdui appeared to have a better balance of production and sales in the entire industry from 2013 to 2014.
The annual export volume of the industry exceeded 400,000 tons for the first time, reaching 403,000 tons, accounting for 18.7% of the national output. In 2014, the export volume increased by 37% from the previous year to reach 552,000 tons, accounting for 22.7% of the country's total output for the year. . From January to September of 2015, due to the slowdown of global economic growth and other factors, the export volume of titanium dioxide decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, of which the decrease was 18.3% in August.
Looking back at the domestic market, affected by the national economic environment, although the market capacity has increased, but the high-load production of large enterprises and the completion of new construction and expansion projects have been completed and put into production. The output of the industry has increased faster, which has aggravated the imbalance between supply and demand.
The market in the first half of the year crawled in ups and downs. Continuation of the trend in the latter part of the year before and after the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year, the price fell and fell again, and the demand was weak. During this period, due to the seasonal decline in the operating rate of the entire industry, the original inventory products were gradually digested, finally ushered in the surface of the spring "Spring" between March and May, the operating rate rose, the price continued to rise slightly, to mid-second quarter The price has been increased by 1,000 yuan/ton. However, these changes are only temporary and superficial, not material, and not sustainable, because there is no fundamental improvement in market capacity. This has been confirmed by the growth of GDP at each stage and the performance of other industries. In addition to the fact that exports do not increase, the common way to resolve excessively high market saturation, price cuts, should be a logical choice. As a result, there have been continuous price cuts since July, and the magnitude of this has exceeded the price increase rate for the Spring Festival. By mid-to-late October, the market price of rutile has declined from 12,000 to 13,000 yuan/ton in the first half of the year. 9500 ~ 10500 yuan / ton, anatase from 9800 ~ 11000 yuan / ton to 8800 ~ 9500 yuan / ton, part of the transaction price is even lower.
Tang Zhenning, Honorary Expert of the National Titanium Dioxide Industry Expert Group, believes that the depressed economy will continue for several years. The industry must have a long-term plan because the apparent consumption of nearly 90% of China's titanium dioxide market is at home, and exports account for a relatively small proportion. . In previous years, our exports had a price advantage, and now the cost is basically similar to that of the international market. The price advantage is no longer. Downstream of coatings, such as steel and real estate, are in a sluggish state. As a result, the use of coatings has declined and thus affected the market of titanium dioxide. This is an important barometer of the national economy. Titanium dioxide is closely related to the national GDP. In recent years, due to the increase in the contribution of the tertiary industry to GDP, the growth rate of the primary and secondary industries has slowed, which has also directly affected the market consumption of titanium dioxide.
He Mingchuan, General Manager of Guangdong Yunfu Titanium Industry Co., Ltd., told the author that although they strictly control the quality of products, do full articles in the industry chain, and adhere to the vigorous development of circular economy, they have made gratifying achievements, through strict enhancement of input and output, production operation and management. The cost has been reduced year by year, but it is still difficult to counter the impact of low market prices. At present, the company is only in the state of maintaining low profits. He Mingchuan believes that as the country's macroeconomic policy shifts to a deeper adjustment period, the titanium dioxide market will continue to operate at a low price for a period of time. It is expected that there will be some improvement in market demand in 2017, and that persistence is a victory. Who can hold on to In the end it is the king.
Bi Sheng introduced at the 2015 meeting of the National Titanium Divide Center of the Chemical Industry Promotion Center of the National Chemical Industry. The current economic environment is poor. The titanium dioxide industry is in an incomparable era, and it has recently fallen to the bottom. The increase in market capacity is very limited, and the increase in production capacity in previous years has continued to release, and the market is worsening. The current actual product transaction price of rutile is roughly between 9500 and 10,000 yuan/ton, and some are even lower than 9,000 yuan/ton. This is already lower than the cost of most production companies. The future prospects are difficult to express with optimism. Regardless of industry restructuring, mergers and acquisitions. Or the addition of an additional chlorination project into production will not be able to change the current dilemma in the short term.
Bi Sheng said that it can be expected that in the next 2-3 years, the industry's production capacity will continue to rise. If the market situation does not improve fundamentally, the industry structure will be further turbulent, and the result can only be accelerated SMEs, especially 50,000 yuan. Companies below the tonne/year undertake M&A and restructuring.
Titanium dioxide industry people are optimistic about the market next year. The current price of titanium dioxide continues to decline, and the operating rate remains at a low level. However, there are some bright spots in the predicament. Titanium dioxide inventory has dropped to normal levels. The industry expects that demand growth will accelerate in the next few years, and the recovery of titanium dioxide market is not far away. Thomas Casey, chairman and CEO of Tenova, stated that 2015 is a transitional year for the titanium dioxide business, but the industry has responded to this dilemma much faster than in the past.
In August of this year, Hassan Ahmed released a research report saying that the current global inventory of titanium dioxide producers is rapidly approaching normal levels, and customers’ inventory may have fallen below normal levels, which means that the moment of restocking is coming soon, stocks At or below the normal level, the price of raw ore tends to stabilize and the spot price of titanium dioxide rises. These three factors mean that the price of titanium dioxide will tend to be normal next year.
The National Chemical Industry Productivity Promotion Center Titanium Divided into the Mind of Psychology, Zhou Xiangxin, Chairman and General Manager of Jinan Yuxing Chemical Co., Ltd. believes that 2015 is destined to be an extraordinary year in the history of titanium dioxide industry development. The world economy is still in a structural crisis. Demand is weak, and the economy has slumped or stagnated. Western developed countries generally adopt quantitative easing measures to shift the risk of dispersion and delay the outbreak of contradictions. So far, no fundamental solution has been found. After more than 30 years of rapid development, the Chinese economy has also entered a period of transitional adjustment. Its important feature is that economic development has shifted from a focus on speed to a new normal on quality and efficiency. As the world's largest producer of industrial products, the slowdown in demand caused by China's economic restructuring has made the domestic real economy enter into a painful process of reducing inventory and capacity. Titanium dioxide is a basic chemical with a wide range of uses and naturally cannot be left alone. The global titanium dioxide market is in a situation of oversupply. The price has been declining, and it has continuously hit a record low. Manufacturers in the industry have taken measures to shut down some of their production capacity and reduce output to cope with the weak market. International manufacturers are no exception. For example, since the third quarter of this year, titanium dioxide production giants have reduced production of titanium dioxide, such as Huntsman announced that it shut down its 100,000 tons capacity; Teno reduced its production capacity by 15%; Kemu also shut down its 150,000 tons Production facilities. In China, the competition is even more fierce. At present, the price of rutile is only around 10,000 yuan/ton, and the industry operating rate has dropped to the lowest point in history. Most of the production enterprises are in a state of loss and suffer miserable.
On the other hand, it is the promulgation and implementation of the newest environmental protection law known as the history, and the industrial wastes, gas, smoke, waste acid, red gypsum and other industrial “three wastes†involved in titanium dioxide production are all facing more stringent standards. With unprecedented efforts to implement, there can be no luck. Since this year, many companies have experienced environmental problems. Enterprises must increase investment or make up classes in this area. The cost of environmental protection is further increased. This is aggravated by the current bleak state of business operations.
Titanium dioxide industry has reached a cold winter due to internal and external troubles, and this year's winter comes early and will continue for a long time. Some enterprises with weak competitiveness may be the primary consideration of whether they can survive and how to survive. The important moment of shuffling will bring profound changes to the pattern and development of titanium dioxide in China and the world in the future.
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