From the smog red warning that began on the evening of December 15, no matter how annoying people are, the next day is inevitably a reality. Standing in the high building of Beijing, looking southeast, I saw that the gray-yellow army rushed from the horizon, and Shijiazhuang, Baoding, Daxing, and Wangjing fell.
What we can do is not just passive waiting and defense. On December 16th, the “13th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development†gave a plan to eliminate smog, which is to accelerate the replacement of fossil energy. In the next five years, the new investment will be 2.5 trillion to 2020. In the year, China's renewable energy power generation installed capacity of 690 million kilowatts, generating 1.9 trillion kWh of electricity, accounting for 27% of all power generation.
As the installed capacity of wind power and solar power , which has received much attention, the target is 210 million kilowatts or more and 110 million kilowatts or more respectively. This goal seems to be slightly conservative compared with the past. However, many people in the industry believe that in the past ten years, the industry has gone through the policy-driven and industry-adjusted period. The installed capacity has grown from explosive growth to steady growth. The reduction of costs, subsidies, quality, and consumption have become core development ideas. High structural growth can be expected.
In fact, this trend has begun to appear this year. On December 22, 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the notice on improving the tariff policy for onshore wind power and photovoltaic power generation. The on-grid tariffs for onshore wind power projects in 2016 and 2018 were reduced in the first, second and third categories. 2 cents, 3 cents, and four types of resource areas are reduced by 1 cent and 2 cents respectively. The price of photovoltaic power generation benchmarks in 2016 was reduced by 0.1 yuan and 0.07 yuan for the first-class and second-class resource areas, and 0.02 yuan for the three types of resource areas. If the photovoltaic power generation project with annual scale management is filed before 2016, if it fails to complete grid-connected power generation before June 30, 2016, the new electricity price standard will be implemented.
With the change of policies, the photovoltaic industry has shown a trend of hot and cold. The installed capacity in the first half of the year exceeded 20GW, which is equivalent to nearly three times that of the same period last year (new 7.73GW). However, in the second half of the year, the sequelae of the pre-installation appeared, the demand for photovoltaics fell by about 80%, the price of components continued to fall, and the low-price competition in the “Leader Plan†bidding, although there were many disputes in the industry, whether it was vicious competition or market reasonable behavior, The result has undoubtedly accelerated this momentum.
The so-called Photovoltaic Runners Program is a special photovoltaic support program launched by the National Energy Administration in 2015 to guide the advancement of photovoltaic technology and industrial upgrading through market competition. This year, a total of 8 bases were upgraded to 5.5 GW, accounting for more than one-third of the national annual PV installation total. In the bidding for the leader of Shanxi Yangquan, GCL reported a low price of 0.61 yuan/kwh. Subsequently, Baotou leader in the bidding, this record was broken by Huadian and Qingdao Changsheng at a price of 0.52 yuan / kwh, while Wuhai project Yingli Energy announced that China's photovoltaic power station prices officially entered the "4" era with 0.45 yuan / kwh.
“The bidding results let us see the hope of the photovoltaic industry and prove the possibility of photovoltaic power generation as the main energy source in the future. Photovoltaic power generation is the new energy power generation technology with the fastest reduction in power generation cost in the past five years, from the beginning of the 'Twelfth Five-Year' period. The hardware cost has dropped by about 70%.†Zhu Ming, director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, pointed out that during the “13th Five-Year Plan†period, one of the main tasks of the photovoltaic industry was to allocate resources through market competition and promote The decline in photovoltaic power generation costs and the rise in technology levels, 2020 PV project electricity prices can be comparable to grid sales electricity prices.
Under this line of thinking, the decline in photovoltaic power prices is a foregone conclusion, and may be another node on September 30 next year. According to the "Request for Comments on Adjusting the On-grid Electricity Price of New Energy Benchmarks" (hereinafter referred to as the "Request for Comments"), the PV on-grid tariffs of the ground power stations in Class I, II and III large resource areas are respectively 0.80 yuan, 0.88 yuan and 0.98 yuan. Downgraded to 0.55 yuan, 0.65 yuan, 0.75 yuan. For distributed photovoltaics, the mode of “spontaneous self-use and surplus electricity access†is implemented according to the mode of full power subsidy. The subsidy standards are: 0.35 yuan/kwh for the first and second types of resources, and 0.4 yuan/kwh for the third category.
In contrast, the cost of the wind power industry is slower. According to the “13th Five-Year Plan†target, the electricity price of wind power projects in 2020 can compete with local coal-fired power generation platforms. The above-mentioned request for comment suggests that next year's four types of wind power resources area on-grid electricity prices will have a subsidy of 2 to 3 points per kWh.
It is worth noting that while reducing subsidies, re-consumption is also the main direction of policy.
It is one of the measures to optimize the layout according to the principle of centralized development and decentralized development, and the principle of near consumption. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the central and eastern regions and the southern region will become the focus of China's wind power development. The newly installed grid-connected installed capacity is over 42 million kilowatts, and the cumulative grid-connected installed capacity has reached more than 70 million kilowatts. If the newly installed grid-connected capacity of Shanghai Wind Power is added, the newly installed grid-connected capacity in the central and eastern regions will account for 56.9% of the newly added grid-connected capacity in the country, far higher than the 25.8% of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€.
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