The domestic market for sulphur has gained momentum recently. In two months, the price has soared from RMB 700 (t price, the same below) to RMB 1350 to RMB 1400, which has doubled. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, the domestic market's gains have slowed down and entered the consolidation phase, showing the development trend of “Golden 9 Silver 10â€.
In the fourth quarter, the price of sulfur supply contract was concerned. The domestic sulfur business focused on the contract price in the fourth quarter. Currently, domestic sulfur price is relatively low compared to the international market. Businesses do not recognize the high price in the current international market. According to analysis, the contract price in the fourth quarter of 2010 is expected to be set at the FOB price of 130 to 135 US dollars, equivalent to China's CIF price of about 160 to 165 US dollars, together 1300 to 1350 yuan.
Changes in exchange rates The cost of importing sulphur decreased significantly The exchange rate of the renminbi against the United States dollar rose sharply. The exchange rate of the United States dollar against the renminbi exceeded the 6.7 mark, and the cost of imported sulphur decreased. According to Zhuochuang information statistics, the RMB appreciation against the US dollar has accumulated over 1.6% in September. For the current international sulfur market CFR price of 155 US dollars, the RMB appreciation price spread will reach 20 yuan, that is, the cost of imported sulfur will decrease by 20 yuan.
Global output of agricultural products to reduce the price of grain and cotton high With the influx of hot money in the market and the scale of grain production gradually surfaced, autumn grain purchase has not reduced the enthusiasm of rising food prices. According to statistics, due to the effects of climate disasters such as domestic droughts and floods, it is expected that the reduction in corn production in China will reach 20-30%, rice production will be reduced by 10-20%, and cotton production will be reduced by about 20%. At the same time, major exporters of cotton, such as India, suspended cotton exports. The Russian government announced that the ban on grain exports will continue at least until September next year. These bullish factors push cotton grain prices one by one, and the cotton price has reached a new high for 10 years. It is foreseeable. In 2011, the world will have a huge investment in agricultural production.
Hot money sought sulphur prices soaring thriving Sulfur rose in the current round of market thriving, prices doubled in two months, and for related products such as sulfuric acid, phosphate fertilizer, carbon disulfide, prices fluctuate little in the past two months, only Phosphorus prices rose slightly. According to monitoring, the current mainstream price of 98% smelting acid in the domestic sulfuric acid market is between 330 and 360 yuan, and the mainstream price of 98% thioic acid is between 420 and 470 yuan, with a cumulative increase of less than 10%. Phosphate fertilizer, the mainstream price of monoammonium phosphate in the 2300 yuan, the mainstream price of diammonium phosphate in the 2700 ~ 2850 yuan, phosphate fertilizer since August has accumulated an increase of about 20%. It can be said that sulfur has been out of the industry chain, is the result of hot money sought after.
The number of imported sulphur was earlier than expected and the profit was high In August, the quantity of sulphur imported from China exceeded the expected level, reaching 1.1 million tons or more, an increase of nearly 30% over the same period of last year. According to statistics, the average cost of imports in August was 95 US dollars, a decrease of 25.8% compared with the previous period, equivalent to a cost of about 800 yuan; the current international sulfur price of Chinese businesses can afford the price of CFR price of 155 US dollars, equivalent to RMB 1280 yuan. In contrast, the value of 1.1 million tons of low-priced sulphur in August has risen by more than 60%. In August, the importer’s home was profitable.
Sufficient supply of excess resources has become a social inventory. For a long time, there has been no substantial change in the resource surplus of the domestic sulfur market. Many excess sulfur resources have gradually become social stocks. According to statistics, at present, the domestic terminal has more than 2.8 million tons of sulfur in Hong Kong. The social sulfur stocks are high. According to Zhuo Chuang's data, the total social inventories of sulfur have exceeded 3.5 million tons, the import volume has remained at a normal level, and the downstream industry's demand is stable. As a result, the domestic sulfur market is still in a period of long destocking. However, when we look back at the fourth quarter of 2009, and look at the current status of domestic sulfur, it seems that the funding of excessive resource game has become futile. The contradiction between supply and demand is no longer the main cause of market fluctuations.
The domestic sulfur market continues to be in a period of destocking, and this process still has to continue for quite some time. Domestic market speculation market is not bad money, "Jin nine silver ten" market has doubled the price of sulfur, the market still has the upper hand of multi-party, plus strong support for high prices outside the disk, there is still room for growth in the medium to long term.
In the fourth quarter, the price of sulfur supply contract was concerned. The domestic sulfur business focused on the contract price in the fourth quarter. Currently, domestic sulfur price is relatively low compared to the international market. Businesses do not recognize the high price in the current international market. According to analysis, the contract price in the fourth quarter of 2010 is expected to be set at the FOB price of 130 to 135 US dollars, equivalent to China's CIF price of about 160 to 165 US dollars, together 1300 to 1350 yuan.
Changes in exchange rates The cost of importing sulphur decreased significantly The exchange rate of the renminbi against the United States dollar rose sharply. The exchange rate of the United States dollar against the renminbi exceeded the 6.7 mark, and the cost of imported sulphur decreased. According to Zhuochuang information statistics, the RMB appreciation against the US dollar has accumulated over 1.6% in September. For the current international sulfur market CFR price of 155 US dollars, the RMB appreciation price spread will reach 20 yuan, that is, the cost of imported sulfur will decrease by 20 yuan.
Global output of agricultural products to reduce the price of grain and cotton high With the influx of hot money in the market and the scale of grain production gradually surfaced, autumn grain purchase has not reduced the enthusiasm of rising food prices. According to statistics, due to the effects of climate disasters such as domestic droughts and floods, it is expected that the reduction in corn production in China will reach 20-30%, rice production will be reduced by 10-20%, and cotton production will be reduced by about 20%. At the same time, major exporters of cotton, such as India, suspended cotton exports. The Russian government announced that the ban on grain exports will continue at least until September next year. These bullish factors push cotton grain prices one by one, and the cotton price has reached a new high for 10 years. It is foreseeable. In 2011, the world will have a huge investment in agricultural production.
Hot money sought sulphur prices soaring thriving Sulfur rose in the current round of market thriving, prices doubled in two months, and for related products such as sulfuric acid, phosphate fertilizer, carbon disulfide, prices fluctuate little in the past two months, only Phosphorus prices rose slightly. According to monitoring, the current mainstream price of 98% smelting acid in the domestic sulfuric acid market is between 330 and 360 yuan, and the mainstream price of 98% thioic acid is between 420 and 470 yuan, with a cumulative increase of less than 10%. Phosphate fertilizer, the mainstream price of monoammonium phosphate in the 2300 yuan, the mainstream price of diammonium phosphate in the 2700 ~ 2850 yuan, phosphate fertilizer since August has accumulated an increase of about 20%. It can be said that sulfur has been out of the industry chain, is the result of hot money sought after.
The number of imported sulphur was earlier than expected and the profit was high In August, the quantity of sulphur imported from China exceeded the expected level, reaching 1.1 million tons or more, an increase of nearly 30% over the same period of last year. According to statistics, the average cost of imports in August was 95 US dollars, a decrease of 25.8% compared with the previous period, equivalent to a cost of about 800 yuan; the current international sulfur price of Chinese businesses can afford the price of CFR price of 155 US dollars, equivalent to RMB 1280 yuan. In contrast, the value of 1.1 million tons of low-priced sulphur in August has risen by more than 60%. In August, the importer’s home was profitable.
Sufficient supply of excess resources has become a social inventory. For a long time, there has been no substantial change in the resource surplus of the domestic sulfur market. Many excess sulfur resources have gradually become social stocks. According to statistics, at present, the domestic terminal has more than 2.8 million tons of sulfur in Hong Kong. The social sulfur stocks are high. According to Zhuo Chuang's data, the total social inventories of sulfur have exceeded 3.5 million tons, the import volume has remained at a normal level, and the downstream industry's demand is stable. As a result, the domestic sulfur market is still in a period of long destocking. However, when we look back at the fourth quarter of 2009, and look at the current status of domestic sulfur, it seems that the funding of excessive resource game has become futile. The contradiction between supply and demand is no longer the main cause of market fluctuations.
The domestic sulfur market continues to be in a period of destocking, and this process still has to continue for quite some time. Domestic market speculation market is not bad money, "Jin nine silver ten" market has doubled the price of sulfur, the market still has the upper hand of multi-party, plus strong support for high prices outside the disk, there is still room for growth in the medium to long term.
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