Chemical market presents "warm spring"

In March, the chemical market was buoyant and the rising price of products became the main line. Among the 48 products monitored by the National Development and Reform Commission, there were 24 kinds of rising trends, reaching half; there were 13 kinds of steady products, and only 11 kinds of products showed a downward trend, and decreased compared with the previous month.

Looking at the March of the chemical industry market, we saw the slightest warmth. Of the 48 products monitored by the National Development and Reform Commission, 24 showed rising trends, reaching half; 13 products showed steady growth, and only 11 products showed a downward trend and decreased compared with the previous month. ?? Warmer? Become the main theme of the chemical market in March, which shows that the chemical market has been through the winter of nine is welcome warm spring.

Aspect 1: Rising to become the main line. Of the above-mentioned products that have risen by half, most products have risen in a contrarian direction. Taking sulfur and epichlorohydrin as examples, the two products have all fallen by about 10% in the list in January, but in March, they It has risen more than 30% and the trend is very different. In addition, the top 10 in the drop list of the previous month all turned against the trend in March and was ranked top in the list of gains, showing a strong recovery. The reason is that the start of the post-holiday refinery is generally not high, traders eager to replenish supply, supply and demand structure drives the overall market strength.

Aspect 2: The decline has been significantly reduced. From the list of March, it can be clearly seen that both the number of products that have fallen and the magnitude of the decline show a marked rebound from February. In terms of the number of products, the number of products dropped in January and February was 16 and 11 respectively. From the point of view of decline, there were 6 kinds of products that fell more than 10% in January, and there was only one type in March.

Aspect 3: Some products have fallen against the trend. In February's commentary, we used the fire of hope to describe products such as stearic acid, DOP and light soda ash, because they showed a certain upward trend at the end of February, but these are the stars of the fire. The performance of this month was not satisfactory, showing a certain decline. This is related to the weak downstream demand. Most of the manufacturers in the previous period had relatively large inventories and the shipping prices were relatively low. Taking DOP as an example, the pre-holiday market has been sluggish and sluggish, and post-holiday traders and manufacturers are eager to rise. The speculation is strong, and the market has been rising for a while. However, the downstream demand has not been followed up in a timely manner. In addition, there are actually some downstream stocks before the holiday. The consumption of this part of the inventory will take time. The market stalled at a price of 8,600 yuan/ton and then began to decline.

After the Spring Festival, the warm spring in the chemical market appears to be more appropriate to describe temporarily. The financial crisis is still intensifying the impact on the real economy. In the long run, the weak situation will still be difficult to change, with the refinery operating rate later. Gradually increase, the market supply will gradually be replenished, and chemical products will still face the dilemma of weak demand and oversupply.

The world economic outlook cannot be optimistic in the short term. The global economic crisis caused by the financial turmoil is still developing and may even worsen. Recently, the International Monetary Fund recently predicted that the world economic growth rate this year will be -0.5% to -1%, which will be the first negative growth of the global economy in 60 years. The advanced economies will experience a serious recession in 2009. The overall growth rate will be between -3.0% and -3.5%, of which -2.6% in the United States and -5.8% in Japan. At the same time, it warned the G20 member states that they need to take more vigorous actions to deal with the ever-increasing crisis. The recovery may be affected by significant downside risks. The recovery depends on the measures taken by the major economic powers to deal with the crisis. In addition to the declining economic growth, unemployment is also not optimistic. In February 2009, the unemployment rate in the United States rose by 0.5% to 8.1%, the highest level since December 1983.

The domestic and international demand situation has not been fundamentally improved, and the outlook remains uncertain. Recently, China's macro-control measures have achieved initial results, boosted by national policies, and some industries have shown positive signs of production, but the overall situation is still rather severe. Among them, the negative growth in imports also reflects that China's domestic demand is still not out of the doldrums. In the first two months, the total value of China’s foreign trade imports and exports decreased by 27.2% over the same period of last year. Among them, imports fell by 34.2%, exports fell by 21.1%, and imports fell by more than 13.1 percentage points from exports.

According to data from the Federal Reserve Board, US industrial production, including factories, mining, and public utilities, fell by 1.4% in February, the fourth straight month of decline. Among them, the total equipment utilization rate was 70.9%, one percentage point lower than that in January, and also lower than 80.7% in the same period of last year and 80.9% in the average level from 1972 to 2008. The decline in industrial production makes it difficult to effectively boost external demand. Affected by the international economic situation, exports of domestic plastics and other related products continued to decline.

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