International phosphorus fertilizer market will remain strong in the medium term

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Demand for monoammonium, heavy calcium and calcium superphosphate in Brazil has rapidly increased, with sources from Russia, China, Lebanon, Egypt and Israel. Originally, India's diammonium demand is expected to be very strong in the third quarter due to the decrease in India's diammonium inventory and the decline in domestic output due to phosphoric acid deficiency. However, due to the new subsidy policy in India and currency devaluation, the country's diammonium imports Demand is greatly hindered.

The demand for mono-ammonium led the recovery of the international phosphate fertilizer market. As Brazil purchased monoammonium, heavy calcium and calcium sulphate from prolific sites, the manufacturers’ intentional prices have risen. For example, lebanese produces heavy calcium, and the FOB price for Bangladesh has been reached from the latest 485-490 US dollars rose by 25 US dollars, while Morocco's supply is negotiating the price of 520 US dollars, the Chinese manufacturers' intention price is 430 US dollars. Since most of the monoammonium and diammonium manufacturers have been sold, there were few transactions last week and the prices were not clear.

European Chemicals sold most of its monoammonium and diammonium production in May to Europe, Africa and Brazil, but other Russian producers converted monoammonium and nitrogen and phosphorus binary fertilizers. The future demand for diammonium is still uncertain. In the United States, the use of fertilizer in spring is nearing completion, and the amount of fertilizer used in summer is stable. The price of diammonium futures reached last week rose slightly. Latin American buyers have little interest in purchasing.

In addition, the price of diammonium in the international market is now outside the acceptable range of India, and the import demand of private importers is almost over. At the current level of subsidy and retail prices, Indian importers must pay a high price of $ 550 CIF (there are rumors that the latest transaction price is $ 560), but the current rupee devaluation, the retail price can not be increased and the amount of subsidies Uncertain factors mean that India's short-term needs have evaporated, and dry weather also uses less fertilizer. However, the most critical thing is how much higher price India can accept. The gap between the current international market spot price and India’s intentional price is getting bigger and bigger. The price of phosphoric acid contract is still pending, which makes the progress of phosphate fertilizer in the second quarter is not smooth. . India has already booked about 2.2 million tons of diammonium, but the price has not yet been set. Everyone is waiting for the American Peat Association to take the lead in opening negotiations. However, it is expected that there will be no results until the earliest June. The supplier's strategy seems to be very clear, that is, to focus on sales of monoammonium to Latin America, so that prices continue to rise until June, thus putting pressure on Indian importers. Now, there are no sales pressures for manufacturers from May to June. It seems that the international phosphate fertilizer market will remain strong in the medium term.

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