In 2012, the domestic market demand for incandescent lamps and energy-saving lamps reached 1.176 billion and 1.269 billion, respectively. The market demand for straight fluorescent lamps was 830 million, the market demand for circular fluorescent lamps was 800 million, and the market demand for tungsten halogen lamps was 7.55. Billion only. These traditional lighting sources and lamps are the target replacement market for LED lighting fixtures. With the improvement of cost performance, LED lighting fixtures will gradually enter these market areas, bringing huge market development space.
The above-mentioned market for traditional light sources views the LED lighting market, and the market for conventional light sources is considered to be large, so the market for LED lighting is also large. I think this simple inference is wrong.
Don't look at traditional light sources. The annual production and usage are very large, because they have a very short life and people have to change them often. This is the root cause of the large amount of traditional light sources.
Incandescent and fluorescent lamps do not last long. The life of energy-saving lamps is nominally 6000 to 8000 hours. The products on the market, good quality, can be used for 2 to 3 years. If the quality is poor, the life is hard to say. The life of incandescent lamps is not long, and the quality is often difficult to say. For example, a new incandescent lamp is blown up just after turning on the light. It is precisely because incandescent lamps, fluorescent lamps, and energy-saving lamps have a short life span, so that continuous and mass production is required to supplement demand. Household energy-saving lamps, generally the longest every day is only 8 hours, two years down, the life expectancy is less than 6000 hours. Although the nominal life of energy-saving lamps is now 8,000 hours, this is measured under standard conditions. The actual conditions of use will be much worse than the standard conditions, so the actual service life will be much shorter.
LEDs do have many advantages over other existing sources. Although in theory, the life of LEDs may be very long, but in terms of current technology, the practical application life of white LEDs is generally 20,000 to 30,000 hours.
Assume that the life of LEDs can be increased to 50,000 hours in the past one or two years, and it can be used for about 17 years. That is to say, with energy-saving lamps, it is necessary to change about 9 lights in 17 years, and only need to change one lamp with LEDs. Simply put, the output of LED lights is only one-ninth of the energy-saving lamps.
Those who have used the halogen spotlight MR16 will have a deep understanding that the life is very short. If LEDs are used instead of halogen spotlights, the life of LED spotlights is much longer, and is generally much longer than halogen spotlights. Therefore, once LED spotlights are used, the amount of replacement in the future will be much less than that of halogen spotlights.
Therefore, the market volume of LED light sources cannot be simply analogized with the output of conventional light sources.
However, it can be considered in this way. Because of the energy saving and long life of the LED light source, the LED decorative lamp may be newly added because the halogen lamp has a short life and is not used. This has expanded the market for some LED light sources. Even so, the market for LED light sources will not be larger than that of conventional light sources.
It has been reported that the replacement of LED bulbs in Japan has led to a sharp decline in market sales in more than a year. It's not that people don't look at it, it's not good quality performance, it's not because of price, but it's almost replaced, it's almost saturated. If the life of a white LED really reaches 100,000 hours, or even a longer life, it is a good thing from the perspective of social resources, but it may not be seen from the perspective of business and business.
However, the above market forecast is for a better quality LED light source. In the future, LED light source products are likely to be of poor quality and low price. This is the way the fluorescent lights, energy-saving lamps, and electronic ballasts go. In the early stage of development, energy-saving lamps and electronic ballasts were also strongly supported by the state, and financial support was provided. Relevant standards also came out early (on the standard, LEDs were behind). At that time, many factories, research institutes, and universities were The development of electronic ballasts, the situation is similar to today's LED situation. The difference is that the initial development of energy-saving lamps and electronic ballasts did indeed require many units to work in accordance with standard requirements, and later it was difficult to promote due to high prices. Instead of cutting corners and cutting costs, and doing everything possible to reduce costs, the price has been greatly reduced, which has the market, but the quality has plummeted. Because the LED industry is involved in too many laymen, the product is not very good at the beginning. Moreover, LED lighting products have been developed for at least 5 or 6 years, and there are no standardized general-purpose products. The price is difficult to reduce, and the domestic market is difficult to open. In the future, the market for LED lighting sources is still available, and low prices are also possible, but the quality is not optimistic.
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