In 2015, China's auto industry ushered in many changes, and these changes have not brought huge impacts on industrial development in this year, but they have laid a groundwork for the future of China's auto industry, which is related to survival and related development.
The introduction of new forces, the withdrawal of zombie enterprises, and the entry and exit mechanism triggered the survival variable. In 2015, the domestic automobile industry ushered in important historically important industrial access and exit policies and mechanisms: the qualification of new energy vehicles was liberalized, and the entry threshold for pure electric vehicle production Reduce, accelerate the introduction of new forces in the industry, stir up the rhythm of market changes; persuade more enterprises, stronger forces, mergers and acquisitions, and the elimination of backward production capacity.
Although the effect of this policy has not yet appeared, in this era of change, this policy will start from 2015, to some extent change the current composition of China's auto industry, and bring diversification to the future development of China's auto industry. The amount of competitiveness, the blending of new and old forces and the contest, the survival variables of each enterprise will also increase.
In detail, in fact, the introduction of these two policy mechanisms and the strengthening of their efforts have never been seen before, and the effects of the two are coincident, which will promote the adjustment of the internal forces of the entire automobile industry.
First, in terms of the introduction of new forces, the Internet, parts and components, and various types of companies are pouring into the automotive industry. At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on November 5, Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that there are already a group of dozens of non-automobile companies applying for new energy vehicle production qualifications, and experts are currently being organized for review. It is expected that in the near future, a number of qualified enterprises will enter the scope of production licenses for new energy vehicles.
You should know that the appetite of every new company that wants to enter the auto industry is not small. It is not to build a super car or a four-wheeled robot. It is to build an ecological circle and build a new car ecology. The influx of these new forces It will largely impact the original automobile ecosystem, causing turbulence throughout the circle and impacting the original forces. This kind of shock may be the impact of thinking, and it is more likely to be the impact of the market on the food and sales.
Secondly, recently, 92 car companies have entered the list of persuasion announcements announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Compared with the 48 persuasion lists that were first publicized, the number of persuasion is more and stronger, and the policy signals are more obvious. The speed and efficiency of mergers and acquisitions and the elimination of backward production capacity have also been greatly enhanced.
Once the new forces influx, the original strong forces are likely to face shocks, not to mention those companies whose production and sales are low on the edge of life and death, even if they are not persuaded, will be eliminated by competition.
Therefore, looking at the 13th Five-Year Plan for independent and joint venture car companies, more and more companies are beginning to throw out large-scale investment plans to continuously strengthen their market position for new energy, intelligence and new models.
Next, the auto industry may no longer have a steady profit, and the variables of survival will continue to expand.
International auto parts companies increase their balance and improve their domestic business uncertainty. According to PwC’s earlier forecast, the global auto parts mergers and acquisitions transaction volume reached a new high of US$48 billion in 2015, almost the same period last year. More than 3 times. In 2015, it not only created a new high in the amount of M&A of parts and components, but also presented a new situation. Among a series of mergers and acquisitions, in addition to strengthening the scale effect, the national component giants began to accelerate business adjustments, and there were buying and selling, and the subdivision of the industry giants continued to be born. The most immediate consequence of the continual birth of the oligarchy is that it will lead to the survival of vulnerable groups.
In May, ZF completed the acquisition of Trina, with a transaction value of US$12.4 billion, which will form the world's second largest auto parts manufacturer.
In July, Magna announced a $1.9 billion acquisition of Getrag, Germany, which controls the world's largest independent drivetrain manufacturer for the full range of power transmission.
NXP spent $11.86 billion to complete the acquisition of Freescale, the world's largest automotive electronics maker.
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In the next few years, the number of international comprehensive component companies will be reduced, and there will be only a few industry giants that will gradually emerge in each segment of the sub-components. Constant mergers and acquisitions will only make more sub-sectors stronger and more specialized. The threshold of each sub-sector is getting higher and higher, and the number of players is getting less and less. This is not too much in many aspects. In terms of advantages, local component companies are not good news, and the uncertainty of survival will be even greater.
There is a kind of counter-attack. When the time comes, it will end the State Council executive meeting on September 29, and determine the support for the development of new energy and small-displacement vehicles. From October 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016, 1.6. Passenger cars with the following displacements are subject to a preferential policy of halving the vehicle purchase tax. The launch of the decision did produce substantial results, directly touching the short-term consumption enthusiasm and stimulating production and sales. However, it is also very likely that some changes that should have occurred within the industry will be delayed, and the period of victory and defeat will be extended.
After the introduction of the above policies, in October, passenger car sales increased by 10.6% quarter-on-quarter and 13.34% year-on-year. In November, production and sales doubled over 2.5 million units, a record high. The sales of passenger cars of 1.6L and below were 1.5566 million, an increase of 16.5% over the previous month, which was higher than the overall growth rate of passenger vehicles by 3.1 percentage points, a year-on-year increase of 29%, which was higher than the overall growth rate of passenger cars by 5.3 percentage points.
To a certain extent, the proportion of small-displacement vehicles is increasing, but how long will it last? What happens once the policy expires?
Zhu Huarong, president of Changan Automobile, has publicly stated that after the end of the subsidy, the victory and defeat will appear in 2017.
Therefore, the strong performance of the auto market in the second half of 2015 is difficult to continue, and the variables of the entire market will surely come. Enterprises that are counter-attacked under policy asylum must be careful.
The development of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly vehicles, the scope continues to expand, who will laugh at the end In 2015, China's haze weather reached an unprecedented level of severity. The smog can't wait for the wind to come. The country has also given more and more encouragement in the development of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly vehicles. It has promoted the sales of new energy vehicles, directly injected incentives for car companies, and added new energy vehicles to develop new five-year plans. Even some companies have high-profile claims that they will reach a million production and sales scale in 2020.
However, at present, the road map of China's major new energy vehicle manufacturers shows that each car company mainly takes the pure electric and plug-in hybrid route. When the Chinese electric vehicle market was in full swing, Japanese cars did not cater to the market, and they mainly focused on hybrid vehicles.
In the production data of hybrid passenger cars in November, the total production volume was about 2,000. Among them, 1387 vehicles of Guangzhou Automobile, 441 Toyota of Tianjin FAW, and 128 of Dongfeng Nissan, together with 1968 vehicles, account for more than 98% of the entire hybrid vehicle.
Japanese cars have been ahead of the field in the development of hybrid technology. However, the acceptance of hybrid vehicles in the Chinese automobile market in the past few years is not high. The key reason for this phenomenon is that the hybrid is relatively expensive. However, with the launch of the Corolla Twin Engine, today, hybrid vehicles are also constantly approaching the distance from consumers in terms of price.
From the point of view of use, hybrid vehicles not only have significant energy-saving effects, but another advantage of hybrid power may be overlooked by many people, that is, it enhances power. Other new energy vehicles face more real problems than hybrid vehicles.
With the passage of time, the increasingly stringent emission regulations and the further tilt of industrial policies, hybrids are not without opportunities. It can't be ruled out that Japanese cars have won the market share of the European and American turbocharged cars and the current market share of pure electric vehicles with hybrid cars.
Therefore, from the perspective of the future development trend, in the field of energy conservation and environmental protection, whose technology has more stamina, there are also variables.
In addition, at present, China's major car companies are concentrating on the development of new energy vehicles in the passenger vehicle field, while ignoring the development of commercial vehicles, especially new energy trucks. The research and development of pure electric trucks in China has just begun, and foreign companies have begun Start developing. Europe and the United States are actively exploring the development of pure electric trucks. Pure electric heavy trucks are a focus of their attention. Some commercial vehicle companies have invested in the development and testing of electric heavy trucks. For example, on December 7, Renault participated in the 21st UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, France. Renault brings two clean energy heavy trucks to showcase their research on climate change.
Although we can see from a practical point of view that the future of pure electric trucks is even more uncertain when pure electric passenger cars are not able to be quickly promoted, facing driving mileage and lack of supporting facilities, according to future development trends and international companies. The situation, the development of pure electric commercial vehicles should also accelerate.
Sharing travel forced business change 2015 is the first year of China's sharing economy. The sharing economy has completely invaded our lives. Sharing travel has become the most influential category, and this constitutes a foreshadowing of the auto industry revolution.
For shared travel, how many people will first respond to buying a car? For the future of the automotive industry, there is no concern for the future of automotive companies. According to the relevant research results, in the next five years (by 2020), the replacement rate of shared travel to private cars will be about 5% to 8%, and the annual sales of cars will be reduced by 1.5 million to 2 million.
However, in fact, the greater driving force for shared travel will be to force industrial changes. Shared travel is essentially to reduce excess capacity. Manufacturers with poor competitiveness will be eliminated or integrated, and competitive auto manufacturers will not be affected. Too big impact.
But what about a competitive company? That is the company that meets the new demands of the car form. With the change of travel mode, the future automobile products will change with each other. The auto companies will take the initiative and deeply participate in the change of travel modes, adjust the positioning, from the suppliers who sell the products to the products and services that can satisfy the demand. Business.
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