In sectors where cyclical performance is very strong, petrochemical performance is very intuitive. The cyclical changes in the world's petrochemical industry are very obvious. In the past 30 years, three clear cycle diagrams have been displayed from 1978 to 1987, 1988 to 1995, and 1996 to this year.
The cycle diagram of China's petrochemical industry is increasingly close to the international cycle diagram. The period of one cycle of petrochemical industry is usually 7 to 8 years. Therefore, the current petrochemical industry is choosing the direction of the cycle. Between 2005 and 2006, is it up or down? Up or down? Everyone is concerned and thinking. There is still no very consistent opinion.
Therefore, the China Chemical Industry Business Cycle Summit Forum was held in due course. The leading companies in the industry are leaders, and the followers are tens of thousands of companies in the industry.
Judging from the circumstances reflected in this forum, experts have a more optimistic view of China's chemical industry cycle than some of the previously circulated views. People once believed that after experiencing rapid growth in 2004, China's chemical industry climate index has begun to decline in 2005, and may continue to decline for some time. However, the prevailing opinion at this forum is that the continuous high oil prices in the world will fluctuate, and the long-term supply of ethylene-led petrochemical products will not meet demand, which will keep the development of the global chemical industry and China's chemical industry at a relatively high level.
The soaring oil price has hit China’s refined oil companies, and the entire petrochemical industry may be prolonged by a year or two due to rising oil prices. Although this kind of consolidation at a higher level may postpone the arrival of the next boom point (in the past it was estimated that there will be a second peak in 2008), we cannot afford to change this trend.
Another view is more pessimistic that the petrochemical industry cycle was extended to 2006 at the most. This conclusion is based on the judgment of changes in economic indicators such as price--this year's GDP growth rate will fall from 9.5% to about 9%. The culmination of China’s economic cycle has already passed and will continue to decline.
In the study of the business cycle, we must avoid a misunderstanding — try to fully grasp the cycle. The research and debate on the business cycle are still in progress. We cannot finally come up with a completely realistic forecast, and we do not need to look forward to it. Because any theory is used to guide practice and to remind practice, one cannot fully understand the trajectory of practice in advance.
For industries and companies, the study of the business cycle is to formulate a variety of countermeasures in the event that multiple trends are likely to occur. In the boom period, peak period, recession period and depression period, there must be countermeasures for different stages. This is the purpose of studying the business cycle and is also a necessary preparation for our response to the business cycle.
The cycle diagram of China's petrochemical industry is increasingly close to the international cycle diagram. The period of one cycle of petrochemical industry is usually 7 to 8 years. Therefore, the current petrochemical industry is choosing the direction of the cycle. Between 2005 and 2006, is it up or down? Up or down? Everyone is concerned and thinking. There is still no very consistent opinion.
Therefore, the China Chemical Industry Business Cycle Summit Forum was held in due course. The leading companies in the industry are leaders, and the followers are tens of thousands of companies in the industry.
Judging from the circumstances reflected in this forum, experts have a more optimistic view of China's chemical industry cycle than some of the previously circulated views. People once believed that after experiencing rapid growth in 2004, China's chemical industry climate index has begun to decline in 2005, and may continue to decline for some time. However, the prevailing opinion at this forum is that the continuous high oil prices in the world will fluctuate, and the long-term supply of ethylene-led petrochemical products will not meet demand, which will keep the development of the global chemical industry and China's chemical industry at a relatively high level.
The soaring oil price has hit China’s refined oil companies, and the entire petrochemical industry may be prolonged by a year or two due to rising oil prices. Although this kind of consolidation at a higher level may postpone the arrival of the next boom point (in the past it was estimated that there will be a second peak in 2008), we cannot afford to change this trend.
Another view is more pessimistic that the petrochemical industry cycle was extended to 2006 at the most. This conclusion is based on the judgment of changes in economic indicators such as price--this year's GDP growth rate will fall from 9.5% to about 9%. The culmination of China’s economic cycle has already passed and will continue to decline.
In the study of the business cycle, we must avoid a misunderstanding — try to fully grasp the cycle. The research and debate on the business cycle are still in progress. We cannot finally come up with a completely realistic forecast, and we do not need to look forward to it. Because any theory is used to guide practice and to remind practice, one cannot fully understand the trajectory of practice in advance.
For industries and companies, the study of the business cycle is to formulate a variety of countermeasures in the event that multiple trends are likely to occur. In the boom period, peak period, recession period and depression period, there must be countermeasures for different stages. This is the purpose of studying the business cycle and is also a necessary preparation for our response to the business cycle.
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