Since August, the domestic urea market has experienced a significant decline. Compared with the high prices in June and July, urea prices in general fell by 100 to 300 yuan per ton, up to 400 yuan, regardless of the ex-factory price or the wholesale market price. Many people attributed this fall to the basic end of agricultural urea fertilizer. Indeed, since the beginning of autumn, the peak season for fertilizer use has ended in most parts of the country, and the amount of agricultural urea has decreased significantly. However, why did the price of urea rise in the same year last year in August and September, and even when it arrived in October, November and December, the price continued to rise? The root cause, the author believes that this year's urea market is largely different from last year's urea market. After entering the autumn of last year, although the peak of agricultural fertilizer use has basically come to an end, there are huge demands for the fertilizer market in the other three areas. The first is the large increase in exports. Due to the high price of international urea in the second half of last year and the fact that the country’s export of urea was not strictly controlled, China’s urea export was very hot in the second half of last year, forming a situation in which the export market and the domestic market were the same as the sources of grabs. The second is the impact of compound fertilizers. Last year when the winter storage, due to the country's strict control on the price of urea, so dealers did not dare to store urea in winter, but will be a large amount of money in winter storage compound fertilizer and other varieties, resulting in the production of complex fertilizer, compound fertilizer production The company's demand for urea has increased significantly, indirectly pulling demand for urea. The third is the effect of industrial urea. Last year, China’s national economy was in a period of rapid development, and the demand for industrial urea in downstream industries such as man-made panels and melamine continued to grow rapidly, resulting in a rapid increase in the amount of industrial urea. All three aspects of the year have been adversely affected, especially exports and compound fertilizers have suffered the most. This year, the state adopted a strict control policy on urea exports. In particular, it imposed a 30% export tax rate on June 1st, resulting in a sharp drop in exports. In July of this year, China exported only 57,000 tons of urea, which was a drop of 64% compared with the export of 157,000 tons in July 2004. Although in November and December of this year, the urea export tariff will be adjusted to 15%, but after the conversion, the export tariff per ton will reach more than 200 yuan, unless the international urea market price is very high at that time, and the difference between the domestic market and the market price is very large. Last year, a large number of exports. In addition, the domestic compound fertilizer market has been tepid this year. Last year, dealers did not receive much income from the winter storage. It is estimated that the enthusiasm for the compound fertilizer winter storage will be greatly reduced this year, so the compound fertilizer production will be used to stimulate the urea market. The situation will certainly not be as good as last year. Looking at industrial urea, after July, the state stipulated that industrial urea could not open value-added tax votes. This was a relatively big blow to the use of industrial urea enterprises, and the production cost increased a lot. Coupled with the slowdown in China's economic growth, it affected the With the production of wood-based panel companies, the market pressure on the melamine industry is also increasing. Therefore, overall, the industrial urea dosage continues to grow, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly. In summary, it is expected that the fertiliser market, like last year’s hot days, is unlikely to re-emerge this fall.
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